The US National Intelligence Council (NIC) has presented a view of the world that is in stark contrast to that of recent years. Predicting a world with multiple sources of power and emphasising the need to deal with diversity, the Report highlights the numbers that put a perspective on the challenges we face:
- 50% … The rise in demand for food by 2025 because of growing populations and switch to western dietary preferences.
- 8 billion … Projected world population by 2025, according to the NIC Report.
- 16% … of the 8 bn will be living in the west. In 1980, 24% of the world’s population lived in the west.
- 39% … of all oil production will come from just six countriess: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq and Russia.
- 63% … of the world’s population is expected to be poor in 2025, fewer people than today but the poorer will be poorer.
Underlying all of this is the ageing of the west where only 3% of population growth to 8 bn will take place. The Report highlights that by 2010 there will be about one senior for every four working age people in the developed world. This will climb to one to three (or possibly higher) by 2025. The demographic dividend will be in countries like India, Africa’s Mahgreb Region, Iran and Lebanon.
Is it going to be enough to be young … unskilled and living in the middle of an infrastructure desert or, corrupt red tape inertia? WIthout careful attention to the tools for sustainable growth the demographic dividend will turn into a fatal demographic deficit. A scarcity of skills is a major problem and a drive to transform this untenable position is a clear imperative.
What does this all mean for the Logistics agenda? What can be done to ensure that Logistics plays its role in transforming the ourcomes from these raw projected numbers?